Starwind Rohana ([info]starsong24) wrote,
@ 2008-07-12 21:13:00
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On the stupidity of an expanding population.
The human population of Earth is six billion and growing. Fifty years ago -as far as I know -it was more like five billion. Waaay back in medieval times, it was...about two billion early on (soon after agriculture became both widespread and reasonably developed?) and more like three billion before we hit the 'early modern' stage.

There's a name for this. It's 'population explosion'.

The huge, undeniable damage that the human race has collectively inflicted on other animals, numerous species, entire ecosystems, and in a couple of cases the actual climate? It's not a result of using too many cars.* It's not (just) because we're irresponsible and selfish. It's because there are far too many human beings around.

Really, our NOT causing immense problems would be kind of a feat.

People living destitute on the edge of a rainforest will fell the trees indiscriminately to survive. That's natural suvival instinct -but there are thousands of people doing that, and while one person doesn't have much of an impact, add them together and they do.

People all over the world are trying to improve other people's standards of living. Great. Good for you. What nobody seems to have realised is the fairly elementary point that human beings reproduce. Human beings in optimal conditions reproduce rather rapidly. And with fewer deaths to balance the suddenly boosted survival rate, the population expansion gets going with considerable vigour.

Really, is it any surprise that there are suddenly so many of us?

Modern medicine and hygine.** Both are very necessary things, and I agree that as many people as possible ought to have access. But once these were introduced, human numbers took off. We increased and increased. We didn't stop having kids just because suddenly more of them suvived, you know. (This point is --kind of --refuted by the fact that most First World countries do have, on average, enough children to replace their parents. Stable, in other words. But it took a while to slow down.)

Our numbers grew fast. And I guess that I'm okay with. But what gets me is that everyone seems to think we need to carry on with this insane trend. They say that we need more land and better crops to supply the burgeoning population.

Um, no. What we need is a contraceptive. Preferably a cheap one that can be dissolved in water. And then distributed to all places where population growth is out of control.

We need it, and fast. We need to stop the world overloading of humans right now, before we, in our vast and expanding numbers, cause irreversible harm. We need to stop human expansion. We need to find a way to reduce our numbers over the generations --not only in the 'First World', but everywhere.

There are way, way too many of us. Often it seems like I'm the only one who thinks that.

So...does anyone else think something like this? Or have any opinions to share? An insight into any relevant factors would be appreciated.

*(Not that we don't do that too.)
**Agriculture is another culprit. I'll rant on that later.



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Population Explosion
[info]petemurphy.wordpress.com
2008-07-13 01:05 pm UTC (link)
Starwind, you're actually underestimating the rate at which the human population has exploded. In the year 0 A.D., the global population was about 250 million. By 1500, it had doubled to about 500 million. It took only 300 years to double again to about 1 billion people around the year 1800. Then it took less than 100 years to double again to 2 billion. In 1950, we had about 3 billion people. Today, the figure is about 6.7 billion.

Population growth in the U.S. has been even more dramatic. The U.N. ranks the U.S. with 8 other countries - India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, Ethiopia and China - as countries that will account for fully half of the world's population growth by 2050. We are the only developed nation that continues to experience 3rd world-like population growth.

For the U.S., addressing this problem requires a two-pronged approach:
1. Immigration needs to be dramatically scaled back to match the rate of emigration, removing it as a factor in population growth.
2. The fertility rate (children per female) needs to be reduced from the current rate of about 2.1 to about 1.79. Why less than 2.0? Because of the steady increase in life expectancy. This reduction in the birth rate could be accomplished fairly easily through economic incentives for people to choose smaller families. (I'm thinking here of tax incentives, primarily.) Such incentives would have to be made income neutral - that is, wealthy families should be just as motivated to choose smaller families as poorer ones.

For more information, I encourage you to visit either of my web sites and consider my book, which advances a new economic theory that is rooted in overpopulation.

Pete Murphy
Author, Five Short Blasts
http://OpenWindowPublishingCo.com
http://petemurphy.wordpress.com

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Re: Population Explosion
[info]starsong24
2008-07-13 04:49 pm UTC (link)
Thank you for the information. Those figures are more than slightly alarming.

Immigration...isn't it more of a local problem than a global one? Because it doesn't increase total human numbers (until children start being born, at which point access to improved facilities causes a rise), it just moves them around...

Reducing the fertility rate through economic incentives sounds both sensible and humane (although I don't know much about this kind of thing). Wouldn't the optimal rate right now be one that leads to a decrease in the number of people, though, as opposed to one which maintains the current population?

Thanks again.

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